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  #1  
Old 03-05-2013
shoeshineboy shoeshineboy is offline
Varsity
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 135
FR/SO State Champion picks

101 Pat Walker

106 Mat Price

113 Carlos Jacques

120 AJ Jaffe

126 Jake Tucker

132 LOGAN LUNDELIOS?

138 ELI BALTAZAR

145 FERNIE SILVA

152 NICK HOLLENSBE?

160 TYRE LEE

170 Dru Worker

182 DAVID LONG

195 TRISTEN PENROD

220 MATT ALLEN

285 B. DITCHMAN
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  #2  
Old 03-05-2013
FirstGenerationHybrid FirstGenerationHybrid is offline
Varsity
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 272
A good way to make predictions in this tournament is to find wrestlers whom were either...

(1) Back-ups behind varsity wrestlers whom qualified for the IHSA State tournament this year.

(2) Wrestled varsity, but missed qualifying for the state tournament due to really strong sectional match-ups.
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  #3  
Old 03-05-2013
petersenkid2 petersenkid2 is offline
Crystal Lake
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Crystal Lake
Posts: 1,057
Without doing a detailed analysis of the qualifiers, it's my opinion that the winner of nearly every weight class will have over 25 varsity wins this year and a solid IKWF pedigree.

What makes it difficult to judge is how well a kid is able to handle a change in weight class. I would say that a kid who moves to Frosh/Soph state at the same weight class where he wrestled varsity all year has an advantage over someone who moves up a weight.

The real gems are the ones who wrestled up a weight class at varsity all year because there was an upper classman at their natural weight and still had success there. These kids are able to drop back to their natural weight for Frosh/Soph state and do very well.

I don't think you will have more than 1 or 2 champs that were not solid varsity starters all year, and I think the number of winners who stayed on weight or dropped a class will significantly outnumber the ones who moved up a class.

I put the over/under of champs with fewer than 25 varsity wins at 2.
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  #4  
Old 03-05-2013
promartinez promartinez is offline
22 more years left.
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Anywhere Jose Is.
Posts: 1,194
101 - Louie Hayes
113 - Carlos Jacques
120 - A.J. Jaffe
126 - Jake Tucker
132 - Phylip DeLoach
138 - Gabe Montalvo
145 - Fernie Siva
160 - Tyre Lee
170 - Dru Worker
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  #5  
Old 03-05-2013
FirstGenerationHybrid FirstGenerationHybrid is offline
Varsity
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 272
Picking winners 101-145

101: Pat Walker

106: Matt Price - Was one match away from qualifying for state (@106) at the Shepard sectional, getting beat by Bosco

113: Carlos Jaquez

120: AJ Jaffe - Was one match away from qualifying for state (@113) at the Shepard sectional, getting beat by Pelligrino

126: Jake Tucker - Was one match away from qualifying for state (@120) at the Shepard sectional, getting beat by Martens

132: Phyllip Deloach - Was one match away from qualifying for state (@132) at the Moline sectional, getting beat by Ramos

138: Nicholas Deloach - Was one match away from qualifying for state (@138) at the Moline sectional, getting beat by Mikenis

145: Fernie Silva - Was one match away from qualifying for state (@145) at the Barrington sectional, getting beat by Pettinato
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  #6  
Old 03-05-2013
glorydays glorydays is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 22
101 louie hayes
126 tucker
132 Levi Smith
145 Silva
152 Clancey vs Brunner
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  #7  
Old 03-05-2013
FirstGenerationHybrid FirstGenerationHybrid is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 272
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirstGenerationHybrid View Post
A good way to make predictions in this tournament is to find wrestlers whom were either...

(1) Back-ups behind varsity wrestlers whom qualified for the IHSA State tournament this year.

(2) Wrestled varsity, but missed qualifying for the state tournament due to really strong sectional match-ups.
This is NOT intended to start a fight, simply to build on my previous analysis.

If you look back to the data on F/S place-winners from last year (I posted this two weeks ago in the forum). A total of 12 of the F/S state champions came from 3A schools. A total of 3 F/S state champions came from 2A schools, and none came from 1A schools.

If you are trying to pick winners, your best pool of candidates is those wrestlers whom just missed getting out of a 3A sectional.
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  #8  
Old 03-05-2013
petersenkid2 petersenkid2 is offline
Crystal Lake
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Crystal Lake
Posts: 1,057
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirstGenerationHybrid View Post
This is NOT intended to start a fight, simply to build on my previous analysis.

If you look back to the data on F/S place-winners from last year (I posted this two weeks ago in the forum). A total of 12 of the F/S state champions came from 3A schools. A total of 3 F/S state champions came from 2A schools, and none came from 1A schools.

If you are trying to pick winners, your best pool of candidates is those wrestlers whom just missed getting out of a 3A sectional.
Were you able to do any analysis about weights? Those who stayed at their varsity weights vs. those who moved up or down?
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  #9  
Old 03-05-2013
FirstGenerationHybrid FirstGenerationHybrid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petersenkid2 View Post
Were you able to do any analysis about weights? Those who stayed at their varsity weights vs. those who moved up or down?
Doing the analysis of whom wrestled at there varsity weight can be confusing. For example, do I determine whom wrestled varsity based on if they competed at the regional? What if they wrestled varsity all season but sat out the regional due to injury? I'll start by just listing for you all of the F/S champions from last year, with school and weight wrestled in the tournament.

A good example would be Patrick Augustyn (below). Last season he was undersized, and did not wrestle varsity for Glenbard North at 106 for most of the season.

101 PATRICK AUGUSTYN Glenbard North
106 COLIN KENYON New Trier
113 TITUS TALYOR Bellville West
120 VINCENT TURK Montini
126 KYLE RODRIGUEZ Lincoln Way West
132 ERIC BARONE Crystal Lake South
138 JOEY GUNTHER Libertyville
145 MICHAEL CARBAJAL Waukegan
152 ANDREW MARSDEN Crystal Lake Central
160 TYRE LEE St. Rita
170 SADARRISS PATTERSON Schamburg
182 MATHEW KENT Edwardsville
195 JOHNNIE FOSTER Bloom Township
220 DEUCE RACHAL Bloom Township
285 ADARIOS JONES Moline
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  #10  
Old 03-05-2013
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matburn160 matburn160 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by promartinez View Post
101 - Louie Hayes
113 - Carlos Jacques
120 - A.J. Jaffe
126 - Jake Tucker
132 - Phylip DeLoach
138 - Gabe Montalvo
145 - Fernie Siva
160 - Tyre Lee
170 - Dru Worker
my pick at 138 would be Anthony
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